“Lying Low in Line: Cascade of Falsification about Political Participation Amid Autocratization​”​

Abstract: Despite the conventional wisdom that citizens under autocratic rule often falsify political preferences, we lack the understanding of how falsification emerges during the process of autocratization. For citizens accustomed to the freedom of speech, the shift should be a process: opposition supporters do not immediately switch to concealing their true preference; only explicit signals of autocratization trigger falsification; and government supporters can also show the tendency to falsify due to social desirability bias. This paper presents a 2021 survey in Hong Kong, a polity undergoing a major institutional overhaul and political realignment toward autocracy. I compare respondents’ reported turnout intention and the item-count estimates from a list experiment to probe whether respondents—and which ones—conceal their true intention to vote in the city’s postponed 2021 legislative elections. I do not find evidence that shows opposition supporters in Hong Kong concealing their intention to turn out. Rather, government supporters over-reported their intention to vote. Results from the survey experiment suggest that only explicit information about repression induces under-reporting of turnout intention, whereas information about election postponement, the COVID-19 pandemic, and electioneering of the government does not have the effect. These findings stress that citizens’ shift toward falsification does not happen overnight. 

List Experiment of Turnout Intention

Turnout Intention: Direct Answers and Item Counts