“International Mudslinging in Vain: An Experiment on COVID-Related Propaganda and Overseas Nationals’ Support for Autocratic Government” (with Rosemary Pang) (manuscript)
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Abstract: Autocratic governments engage in negative propaganda that highlights failures or malice of foreign countries. Does this strategy promote overseas nationals’ support for their autocratic government? We argue that international mudslinging is less effective than conventional, positive propaganda because of the “backlash” against the mudslinger, particularly on receivers who suspect the motives behind negative propaganda or have information inconsistent with mudslinging messages. Mudslinging is also less effective than positive propaganda on those who are particularly susceptible to the latter. We implement a survey experiment on Chinese students in the U.S. with genuine COVID-related messages from China’s official media. We find that positive propaganda promotes subjects’ support for the Chinese government while mudslinging is ineffective or counterproductive, particularly on subjects who are ideologically incongruent with the regime, do not see COVID-19 as very severe in America, or have received health kits from the Chinese government. This paper suggests that international mudslinging by autocratic governments does not effectively shift public opinions when targeted at overseas nationals. Our findings imply that negative propaganda does not help China’s endeavors to lure its overseas talents to return.
Presented at SPSA 2021 and QCSS 2021. Current manuscript based on wave 1 survey results. Wave 2 survey pre-registered at OSF and in the fieldwork from March to July 2021. |
Average Treatment Effects: Positive Propaganda as Baseline
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