“International Mudslinging in Vain: An Experiment on Negative Propaganda and Overseas Nationals’ Support for Autocratic Government​” (with Rosemary Pang) (manuscript)​

Abstract: Autocratic governments engage in negative propaganda that highlights failures or malice of foreign countries. How effective is this strategy in promoting overseas nationals’ support for their government? We argue that international mudslinging is less effective than conventional positive propaganda because of the “backlash” against the mudslinger, particularly on receivers who suspect the motives behind negative propaganda or have information inconsistent with mudslinging messages. Mudslinging is also relatively less effective on those who are particularly susceptible to positive propaganda. We implement two waves of survey experiments on Chinese students in the U.S. using genuine COVID-19 propaganda messages from China’s official media. We find that while positive propaganda promotes subjects’ support for the Chinese government, international mudslinging is not as effective, particularly on subjects who are ideologically incongruent with the regime, do not see COVID-19 as very severe in the U.S., or have received health kits from the Chinese government. This paper suggests that international mudslinging by autocratic governments does not effectively shift public opinions when targeted at overseas nationals. Our findings imply that negative propaganda does not help China’s endeavors to lure its overseas talents to return.

Presented at SPSA 2021, QCSS 2021, Fudan-UC Center on Contemporary China Young Scholars Conference 2023, and APSA 2023. 

Average Treatment Effects: Positive Propaganda as Baseline

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